Gold retreats as geopolitical and macro forces cut against safe-haven demand
Gold has fallen sharply in recent sessions, with the metal down roughly 7% since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, as two forces that would normally support prices are instead working against it.
Strong US payrolls data published last week reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve has little room to cut interest rates in the near term. Higher-for-longer rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, and the data hit the metal hard on the week.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump's public threats to escalate US military strikes on Iran have amplified inflation fears rather than straightforward safe-haven buying. Investors appear to be pricing in the risk that a prolonged conflict lifts energy costs and keeps the Fed on hold, a combination that reduces gold's appeal relative to the dollar and short-dated Treasuries.
Silver has tracked gold lower, with both metals declining as Trump's rhetoric intensified over the weekend.
Some analysts argue the selloff is temporary. Reports from the South China Morning Post suggest gold could reverse course once the Iran conflict concludes and the Fed eventually moves toward policy easing. That view is contingent on two uncertain variables: the war's duration and the trajectory of US inflation data in coming months.
For portfolio managers, the immediate read is that the traditional inverse relationship between geopolitical risk and gold is being overridden by the rate outlook. Until there is a credible signal that the Fed will ease, or that the Iran conflict is moving toward resolution, the path of least resistance for gold remains lower.
