The closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the Middle East war has removed 13 million barrels per day from global supply, the largest disruption...
Analysis
A 13 million bpd open-ended supply removal is roughly 13% of global consumption. With no resolution signalled, oil forward curves face persistent backwardation, and any refinery or strategic reserve release arithmetic becomes structurally insufficient to close the gap. Energy-intensive industries, particularly European chemicals, aluminum smelting, and fertilizer production, face input cost pressure that is no longer a spike event but a prolonged margin erosion. Industrial equities in these sub-sectors face downward earnings revisions that extend into Q3 and Q4.
