OpenAI to file confidentially for IPO as soon as Friday
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading the process as OpenAI targets a speedy path to public markets.
Briefing
- OpenAI is preparing a confidential IPO filing that could be submitted as soon as Friday, marking the first formal step toward a public listing for the world's most prominent AI company.
- Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are the lead banks on the transaction.
- The filing is described as confidential, meaning the S-1 will not be publicly visible until OpenAI chooses to release it, typically weeks before a roadshow.
- The timeline signals OpenAI is moving quickly, with sources characterising the approach as aiming for a speedy IPO process.
- If OpenAI lists, it would be among the most consequential technology IPOs in years and will set a valuation benchmark for private AI companies still seeking exits.
Analysis
- OpenAI's confidential IPO filing compresses the timeline pressure on Anthropic to pursue its own public listing, arriving within days of the SpaceX S-1 release. Two frontier AI companies approaching public markets simultaneously creates a valuation sequencing problem: whichever prices first sets the benchmark multiple for the other. With the 30-year Treasury at its highest since 2007, both face long-duration discount-rate headwinds that could force valuation resets between filing and roadshow.
- Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley now lead both the SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs simultaneously, concentrating syndicate fee economics and book-building risk in two banks at a moment when long-end yields are structurally elevated. Sustained 30-year Treasury pressure above 5.19% reduces institutional appetite for long-duration growth equity in both books, creating a direct conflict between deal velocity and optimal pricing conditions for both listings.
- Karpathy's move to Anthropic, now compounded by OpenAI accelerating toward an IPO, raises the competitive stakes for Anthropic's own pre-IPO positioning. OpenAI's public listing will create a liquid valuation reference that directly pressures Anthropic's private investors and board to pursue their own exit, likely accelerating Anthropic's IPO timeline within 12 months of OpenAI pricing regardless of rate conditions.
Historical Context
- 2021
Rivian's November 2021 IPO priced at a $66 billion valuation during peak zero-rate conditions. When the Fed pivoted hawkish, the stock lost more than 80% within 12 months, establishing that long-duration growth equity is acutely exposed to discount-rate shifts between filing and aftermarket.
- 2019
Uber and Lyft IPOs in spring 2019 created a valuation sequencing dynamic where Lyft's earlier pricing set a benchmark Uber then failed to meet, damaging Uber's debut. Both priced into a deteriorating rate environment, with both stocks trading below IPO price within weeks.
- 2012
Facebook's May 2012 IPO, the largest US tech listing at the time, priced at $38 and closed its first day flat before falling sharply, partly due to Nasdaq technical failures but also investor concern about mobile monetisation. It established that high-profile AI-era IPOs face disproportionate scrutiny on path-to-profit.
Connected Events
Goldman Sachs to lead SpaceX IPO syndicate in potentially record-breaking offering
Goldman Sachs secured the lead position on SpaceX's IPO, with Morgan Stanley second, and SpaceX could release its prospectus publicly as soon as this week. Goldman and Morgan Stanley are now co-leading both SpaceX and OpenAI, creating simultaneous mega-IPO book-building demands on the same syndicate desks.
30-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2007 as inflation fears keep long-end pressure elevated
The 30-year Treasury yield topped 5.19%, its highest since 2007, with 62% of global fund managers targeting 6%. This rate environment directly compresses the long-duration growth multiples that both the OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs require investors to absorb.
Andrej Karpathy joins Anthropic's pre-training team
Andrej Karpathy, OpenAI co-founder, joined Anthropic's pre-training team days before OpenAI's IPO filing, signalling weakening talent gravitational pull at OpenAI at the precise moment the company is seeking public investor confidence in its competitive moat.
Further reading
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