Indexa Markets Brief — Thursday 25 June

6 stories · Sent Thursday, 25 June 2026

Indexa

Morning Markets Brief

Thursday, 25 June 2026

Micron profits surge 1,400% as memory chip shortage drives record revenue

Micron's net profit rose nearly 1,400% year-on-year in its fiscal third quarter, the direct result of supply-constrained memory prices amplified by AI infrastructure buildout.
Quarterly revenue more than quadrupled, with the top line jumping over $9 billion from the prior quarter, marking a record for the company.
Gross margin expanded to 84.9% from 39% a year ago, surpassing those of Nvidia and Meta and making Micron the highest-margin company among large-cap technology peers.
The stock advanced 9% in after-hours trading following the results, extending a 700% gain in Micron's share price over the preceding twelve months.
Micron issued forward guidance for the next quarter above analyst consensus estimates, signalling that memory pricing pressure has not yet peaked.
The results reinforce that AI server builds, which require substantially more DRAM and HBM per unit than conventional servers, are the primary demand driver; competitors and DRAM buyers should expect continued tight supply conditions.

Analysis: HBM and high-capacity DRAM suppliers face a sustained pricing tailwind through at least calendar Q4 2026, with Micron's above-consensus forward guidance confirming supply has not yet caught up to AI…

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Markets • 1 min read

Kalshi seeks funding at $40bn valuation, up from $5bn last October

Kalshi's implied valuation has risen eightfold in roughly eight months, from $5bn in October 2025 to a targeted $40bn in the current round, making it the dominant regulated prediction market by implied scale.
The company is in active talks to close the new funding round in Q3 2026, according to the Financial Times report that broke the story.
Kalshi is eyeing a potential public debut in 2027, meaning this round would likely serve as the final or penultimate private raise before an IPO process.
The valuation gap between Kalshi and rival Polymarket, which operates outside US regulation, is widening as institutional capital gravitates toward the regulated venue.
A successful close at $40bn would position Kalshi as a direct challenger to established derivatives and sports-betting operators, broadening the competitive threat beyond crypto-native prediction markets.

Analysis: CME's pending lawsuit against the CFTC over Kalshi's perpetual futures product creates a material legal overhang that caps the practical value of a $40bn pre-IPO round. If a court finds perpetual…

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Markets • 1 min read

OpenAI unveils Jalapeño, its first custom AI inference chip built with Broadcom

OpenAI is moving to control its own silicon stack with Jalapeño, a custom inference accelerator designed specifically for ChatGPT and related LLM workloads, reducing dependence on third-party chip suppliers.
The chip was produced in partnership with Broadcom and arrives eight months after OpenAI first announced the custom chip deal.
OpenAI framed the project as part of an ambition to 'build the full stack', signalling that Jalapeño is the first in a planned series of proprietary hardware generations.
Custom inference silicon typically lowers per-query compute costs and improves latency at scale, which matters directly to OpenAI's unit economics as ChatGPT usage grows.
The immediate question for competitors and hyperscalers is whether OpenAI will seek to deploy Jalapeño exclusively internally or eventually offer it as part of a broader infrastructure service.

Analysis: Broadcom's AVGO faces a structural revenue ceiling on its AI custom silicon business as OpenAI's in-house capability matures. Broadcom's hyperscaler ASIC franchise is valued partly on expanding…

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Regulation • 1 min read

Binance withdraws Greek MiCA application days before EU deadline

Binance's withdrawal of its Greek MiCA license application leaves the exchange without an EU regulatory base less than one week before the July 1 deadline, at which point unlicensed crypto firms are expected to wind down bloc-wide operations.
The Greek application was pulled one week after reports indicated it would be denied by local regulators.
Binance says it will seek MiCA authorisation in an alternative EU jurisdiction, though no country or timeline has been confirmed.
Failure to secure a licence before July 1 would force Binance to shut down services for millions of European users, representing a material operational risk for the exchange's largest regional market.
Other unlicensed crypto firms operating in the EU face the same July 1 cliff edge, making Binance's next jurisdictional move a reference point for the sector's regulatory scramble.

Analysis: Binance's unresolved MiCA status creates a near-term operational cliff for EU-based crypto exchange volumes. If Binance cannot secure an alternative EU license before July 1, it must suspend services…

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Earnings • 1 min read

Cerebras stock falls after first post-IPO earnings on margin guidance concern

Cerebras shares fell sharply following its first earnings report since going public, driven by a forecast for narrower gross margins in its core business.
The margin guidance spooked investors who read it as a deterioration in the AI chipmaker's fundamental economics.
CEO Andrew Feldman said the margin forecast was 'misunderstood', though the sources do not detail his specific rebuttal or the revised figure he cited.
A staggered lock-up expiration, with some shares becoming available for trading this week, compounded downward pressure on the stock.
Investors will now scrutinise whether management can clarify the margin trajectory in follow-on communications before the next tranche of lock-up shares is released.

Analysis: CBRS faces compounding technical selling pressure as staggered lock-up tranches create a predictable supply overhang before management can rehabilitate the margin narrative. Post-IPO lock-up…

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Regulation • 1 min read

Anthropic accuses Alibaba of largest known distillation attack on its Claude AI

Anthropic has accused Alibaba of conducting what it describes as the largest known distillation attack on the company to date, representing a material escalation in alleged AI intellectual property theft between US and Chinese technology firms.
Anthropic claims Alibaba used fake accounts to gain fraudulent access to its Claude AI model and systematically extract its capabilities.
A letter obtained by CNBC states Alibaba carried out the attack "brazenly" and "illicitly," language suggesting Anthropic intends to pursue formal legal or regulatory remedies.
The dispute adds regulatory and legal risk to Alibaba at a moment when US-China technology competition is already subject to intensifying government scrutiny on both sides.

Analysis: Alibaba faces incremental regulatory and legal exposure in the US market at a moment when US-China tech decoupling policy is already tightening. A formal Anthropic complaint creates a paper trail…

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