Indexa Markets Brief — Friday 1 May

10 stories · Sent Friday, 1 May 2026

Indexa

Morning Markets Brief

Friday, 1 May 2026

Big Tech Q1 AI capex tops $700bn as earnings beats mask spending surge

Combined AI capital expenditure across the major US technology companies surpassed $700bn on an annualised basis following Q1 results, with all four firms raising forward spending guidance.
Big Tech AI capital expenditure is now projected to top $1 trillion in 2027, according to CNBC.
The scale of spending has drawn sharp criticism, with at least one commentator describing it as the 'greatest capital misallocation in history', according to MarketWatch.
Alphabet and Amazon outpaced Meta in AI deployment metrics during the reporting period, according to Bloomberg, suggesting uneven returns on comparable outlays.
Markets responded selectively: of Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet, only one was penalised by investors for the magnitude of its AI spending commitments.
The results were broadly characterised as beats on revenue and profit, but the scale of forward capex commitments is intensifying scrutiny over when AI infrastructure spending converts to measurable earnings contribution.

Analysis: The divergence in market reactions across the four hyperscalers, where Meta was penalized but Alphabet and Amazon were not, establishes a new investor framework: cloud revenue acceleration is now…

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Central Banks • 1 min read

Powell to stay on Fed board, blocking Trump from filling vacancy

Jerome Powell announced he will remain as a Fed governor after his chair term ends, citing legal actions by the Trump administration as forcing his hand.
By staying on the board, Powell denies Trump an additional appointment to the Fed's Board of Governors, limiting the president's ability to reshape the institution.
Powell has vowed to keep a low profile in his role as governor, according to the Financial Times.
The Fed held rates steady at its latest meeting, but the decision was accompanied by the highest level of internal dissent since 1992.
Kevin Warsh is on the verge of being confirmed as Fed chair, meaning he will inherit both a board member he cannot displace and a divided policy committee.
Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly condemned Powell's decision to remain, calling it a violation of Fed norms, signalling an escalating confrontation between the administration and the central bank.

Analysis: Powell retaining a governor seat reduces Trump's Board of Governors appointments by one, but the more consequential effect is structural: Warsh chairs a divided committee with a sitting governor…

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Markets • 1 min read

Saudi PIF to end LIV Golf funding after current season

Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund will withdraw its multi-billion dollar financial backing from LIV Golf at the end of the current season, effectively ending its role as the league's sole funder.
PIF reportedly invested more than $5 billion into LIV Golf since its launch; the fund has now stated its investment priorities have changed.
A committee of independent directors will be convened to evaluate strategic alternatives for the league, according to people familiar with the matter.
Speculation about a potential shutdown had circulated for weeks as PIF progressively distanced itself from the organisation.
Golfers who signed LIV contracts and left the PGA Tour may face financial and competitive consequences if they seek to rejoin the main tour.

Analysis: PIF withdrawing from LIV Golf after committing more than $5 billion confirms that sovereign wealth fund sports investments face a harder internal ROI test when geopolitical and reputational returns…

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Markets • 1 min read

PayPal separates Venmo into standalone business unit amid buyer interest

PayPal is reorganizing into three distinct business units, with Venmo elevated to standalone status under a strategic restructuring announced April 29.
The move is being driven by PayPal's new CEO and is framed as an effort to accelerate growth across the company's portfolio.
Potential buyers are reported to be circling Venmo, raising the prospect that the separation is a precursor to a sale or partial divestiture.
PayPal shares rose on the news, reflecting investor appetite for a cleaner corporate structure and optionality on Venmo's value.
The reorganization follows a pattern of pressure on PayPal to unlock value from Venmo, which has struggled to generate meaningful revenue relative to its user base.

Analysis: Separating Venmo into a standalone unit creates a clean acquisition target with a discrete user base, monetization history, and balance sheet. Potential acquirers most likely include large banks…

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Markets • 1 min read

SoftBank plans US IPO for new AI and robotics spinout Roze at ~$100bn valuation

SoftBank Group is creating a standalone AI and robotics company named Roze, with a US IPO targeted as soon as 2026.
SoftBank is weighing a valuation of approximately $100 billion for the new entity.
The listing would give Roze an independent market presence separate from SoftBank Group's existing conglomerate and Vision Fund structure.
No further financial details, lead underwriters, or composition of Roze's asset base were disclosed in the sourced reports.

Analysis: A $100bn Roze IPO in 2026 would be the largest AI-themed listing attempted to date, arriving in a market where OpenAI just missed revenue targets and investor appetite for pre-revenue AI entities at…

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Earnings • 1 min read

Carvana posts record Q1 with 187,393 units sold and $405m profit

Carvana earned a profit of $405 million in Q1 2026, its highest on record.
Retail unit sales reached 187,393 vehicles, a 40% increase versus the prior-year period.
The volume figure sets an all-time quarterly record for the online used-car retailer.
Carvana shares rose on the results, reflecting investor response to the beats on both volume and profit.

Analysis: Carvana's 40% unit growth and record profit in Q1 2026 arrived before tariff-driven used-car price inflation fully materialized. The Supreme Court's invalidation of emergency tariffs reduces one…

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Earnings • 1 min read

Alphabet leads Big Tech earnings on cloud acceleration and spending beat

Alphabet was the standout gainer among major technology companies following a coordinated Big Tech earnings day.
The company posted an earnings beat alongside strong cloud growth, according to MarketWatch.
Analysts noted Alphabet's cloud business is accelerating relative to competitors, per CNBC.
The cloud performance is helping to validate elevated spending projections that had drawn scrutiny from investors.

Analysis: Alphabet's cloud acceleration validating its capex trajectory, combined with AWS posting its strongest growth since 2022, removes the central bear case that hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending is…

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Markets • 1 min read

Anthropic in talks to raise $50bn at $900bn-plus valuation

Anthropic is in active talks with investors to raise approximately $50bn at a valuation exceeding $900bn, confirmed by CNBC and reported by Bloomberg and The Information.
The implied valuation would surpass OpenAI, positioning Anthropic as the highest-valued private AI company globally.
Secondary market demand is reported to be intense, with existing investors receiving unsolicited approaches from prospective buyers seeking indirect exposure.
No deal terms have been finalised and the round has not closed.

Analysis: A $900bn-plus private valuation for Anthropic, arriving days after OpenAI missed revenue and user targets, creates a direct valuation credibility problem for any impending OpenAI IPO. If Anthropic…

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Earnings • 1 min read

Caterpillar Q1 profit and sales rise on construction and power equipment demand

Caterpillar reported higher first-quarter profit and a jump in sales, driven by continued demand for construction equipment, engines, and generators.
Growth was broad-based across its construction and power equipment divisions.

Analysis: Caterpillar's broad-based construction and power equipment demand in Q1 reinforces the physical infrastructure buildout thesis running alongside hyperscaler AI capex. Data center construction, grid…

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Earnings • 1 min read

Merck beats Q1 sales estimates as Keytruda demand drives earnings guidance raise

Merck reported higher first-quarter sales, beating consensus estimates, with Keytruda remaining the primary growth driver.
The company raised its full-year earnings guidance following the Q1 beat.
New products contributed alongside Keytruda to the quarterly outperformance.
Merck narrowed its full-year outlook, signalling tighter confidence in the range of expected results.

Analysis: Keytruda's continued dominance as Merck's primary growth driver, combined with a guidance raise and range-narrowing, reinforces the oncology biologics thesis heading into the post-LOE cliff debate.…

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