Polymarket insider scrutiny
A group of newly created accounts on the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket placed large, well-timed bets on a US-Iran ceasefire on Tuesday, generating combined profits of more than $600,000, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps and reporting by the Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, and The Guardian.
The bets were placed in the hours before Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, at a moment when his public posture was maximally hawkish. Earlier on Tuesday he had posted on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" unless Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz by his 8pm ET deadline. That rhetoric left conventional market participants with little basis to price a deal as probable, making the precision of the wagers striking.
The accounts involved were newly created, a detail that analysts and journalists have flagged as consistent with attempts to obscure the identity of the bettors. Polymarket's Iran ceasefire markets, alongside rival platform Kalshi, recorded their highest traffic since the US presidential election, according to Forbes, as the story drew wider attention to the platforms.
Polymarket has faced previous accusations of insider trading or information asymmetry, and this episode is likely to intensify regulatory and reputational pressure on prediction markets at a moment when they are seeking mainstream financial credibility. Neither Polymarket nor any named individual had commented on the record in the sources available.
