Brent crude crossed $100 a barrel in Asian trading on Monday, extending a run of sharp gains driven by the sharpest escalation yet in the US-Iran conflict. The move came after Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely, a response to what CNN reported was a direct ultimatum issued by President Trump.
The threat to the Strait, through which roughly 20 percent of the world's oil supply passes, pushed prices sharply higher over the weekend. Axios reported that prices remained volatile as traders attempted to assess the credibility of Iran's warning and the likelihood of US military action to keep the waterway open.
Adding to market uncertainty, conflicting reports emerged on Monday over whether any US-Iran diplomatic talks were under way. Iran denied that negotiations were taking place, according to Reuters, even as some outlets reported back-channel contact. The ambiguity kept traders from pricing in a clear de-escalation path, with Brent holding above $100 through early European hours.
CNBC noted that the US economy faces a de facto deadline of roughly two weeks before the standoff begins to inflict measurable damage on growth, given the speed at which an energy shock of this magnitude feeds through to fuel costs, freight rates, and consumer prices.
Analysts cited by CBS News warned that prices could reach record highs if the Strait is disrupted for any sustained period. The current Brent record, set in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, stands at just under $128 a barrel.
US crude futures also rose more than a dollar in early Asia trade, according to Reuters, which separately reported that prices were expected to extend gains through Monday as the conflict showed no sign of near-term resolution.
