Iran reopens Hormuz; markets reprice geopolitical risk
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi announced on Friday that commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire," specifying that ships must follow a coordinated route designated by Iranian officials. The 10-day ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran began Thursday evening, with an expiry set for April 22.
President Donald Trump confirmed the opening on Truth Social, describing the strait as "open for business," while simultaneously warning that a US naval blockade would remain "in full force and effect" until the terms of any agreement with Iran are "100% complete." Trump added that "most of the points are already negotiated."
Adding to the diplomatic backdrop, Axios reported that US officials are discussing a three-page framework under which Washington would release up to $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran surrendering its stockpile of enriched uranium.
Oil plunges, crypto surges
WTI crude futures fell approximately 11% on the day toward $84 per barrel, reversing a sharp run-up that had taken the US benchmark to $115 earlier in the month, its highest level since September 2022. Brent crude tracked a similar move, falling to around $85 per barrel.
Bitcoin climbed to approximately $77,400, its highest level since early February and roughly 22.6% above where it traded when Middle East hostilities escalated seven weeks ago. The $76,000-$78,000 zone had been resistance, corresponding to the level at which Bitcoin traded before a sharp selloff on February 5 drove prices back to $60,000. Bitcoin's move above $77,000 also puts it above its 100-day moving average for the first time since that selloff.
Ethereum rose 6% to approximately $2,440, XRP gained 6% to $1.49, and Solana advanced 6.4% to $90. Strategy, the bitcoin treasury company, surged 12.5% to $168, its highest price in three months, and is now back in profit on its bitcoin holdings while trading above its 200-week moving average for the first time since February. Coinbase shares rose 5% to $210 and Robinhood gained 5% to $92.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both reached record highs. According to The Kobeissi Letter, the S&P 500 has added $7 trillion over the past three weeks as investors who sold in March return to risk assets.
Key risk: ceasefire duration
The market reaction assumes geopolitical tensions continue to ease, but the ceasefire expires April 22. Iranian ships remain subject to the US naval blockade until a formal agreement is reached. Negative funding rates in Bitcoin derivatives markets, which have persisted for more than a month and hit their highest level this year according to Coinglass data, indicate that a meaningful portion of derivatives traders remains positioned for a reversal rather than a continuation of the rally.
