China Trade Data: March 2026
China's export growth decelerated sharply to 2.5% year-on-year in March, falling short of market estimates and representing a significant step down from the momentum recorded in January and February, according to data reported by CNBC, Bloomberg, and Reuters.
The slowdown has been linked to the outbreak of war in Iran, which has introduced uncertainty into global shipping and trade flows, particularly affecting oil and gas routes through the Persian Gulf. Bloomberg characterised March as the first month in which the conflict visibly weighed on Chinese export performance, eroding gains that had been driven by demand for AI-related goods. Reuters also reported that China's gas imports fell to a multi-year low, though crude oil imports remained largely unscathed by the conflict.
Imports offered a contrasting signal, posting their strongest growth in more than four years. That divergence — weakening exports alongside robust import demand — complicates any straightforward reading of underlying economic conditions and may reflect continued domestic investment activity even as external demand softens.
The trade data nonetheless sits within a broader first-quarter picture that came in stronger than expected. China's GDP grew 5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, beating the 4.86% forecast from economists polled by financial data provider Wind and accelerating from the 4.5% recorded in the final quarter of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The result puts Beijing on track to meet its annual growth target, even as the US-Israeli war on Iran continues to cloud the global economic outlook. Infrastructure spending has been identified as a key driver of the outperformance, while consumer activity has remained more subdued.
Reuters, citing a pre-release poll, had flagged that Chinese exports were set to lose momentum as the Iran conflict undercut an AI-driven export boom. The March outturn confirms that trajectory. How quickly, and whether, export growth recovers will depend in large part on the duration and geographic spread of the conflict's effect on global shipping.
