Chainalysis projects stablecoin volumes reaching $1.5 quadrillion by 2035

Baseline growth alone implies $719 trillion; two macro catalysts push the ceiling nearly double that figure.

Briefing

Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis forecasts stablecoin transaction volumes could reach $1.5 quadrillion annually by 2035, up from $28 trillion in real economic activity recorded in 2025. The upper-bound projection depends on two catalysts: an estimated $100 trillion generational wealth transfer to Millennials and Gen Z between 2028 and 2048, and deep integration of stablecoins into merchant point-of-sale systems. On organic growth alone, Chainalysis places the 2035 figure at $719 trillion. The report estimates stablecoin payment volumes could reach parity with Visa and Mastercard somewhere between 2031 and 2039.

The Forecast

Chainalysis, in a report published Wednesday, projects stablecoin transaction volumes will reach between $719 trillion and $1.5 quadrillion annually by 2035. The $719 trillion figure represents a continuation of current trends; stablecoins processed $28 trillion in real economic activity in 2025, a figure Chainalysis says has grown at a 133% compound annual rate over the past three years. The higher $1.5 quadrillion figure requires two additional macro conditions to materialise.

Two Catalysts

The first is demographic. Chainalysis estimates the intergenerational transfer of approximately $100 trillion in wealth from Baby Boomers to Millennials and Gen Z, expected to occur between 2028 and 2048, could add $508 trillion in annual stablecoin transaction volumes by 2035. A 2025 Gemini survey cited in the report found that nearly half of Millennials and Gen Z have held or currently hold crypto.

The second catalyst is infrastructure. As stablecoin acceptance expands at merchant checkout and within backend payment systems, the firm argues that transacting in stablecoins will cease to require an active decision by the consumer. Chainalysis projects that point-of-sale integration could add a further $232 trillion in annual volumes by 2035. The report also identifies AI-driven commerce as a potential additional accelerant.

Industry Signals

Chainalysis points to recent corporate activity as evidence the shift is already underway. Stripe's acquisition of Bridge and Mastercard's acquisition of BVNK are cited as indicators that stablecoins are moving from peripheral settlement tools into core payments infrastructure. Standard Chartered has separately flagged that stablecoin usage is rising faster than expected, and the bank estimates stablecoin growth could generate up to $1 trillion in demand for US Treasuries. Standard Chartered also projects the total stablecoin market cap will reach $2 trillion by 2028, compared with roughly $317 billion today.

Regulatory Context

A White House study published this week found limited evidence that stablecoin yields would materially reduce bank lending, effectively tempering deposit-flight concerns as the US regulatory framework remains under construction. Trump's crypto adviser has separately argued that stablecoin issuance, depending on reserve structure, could channel deposits into the US banking system rather than away from it.

Caveats

The assumptions embedded in the $1.5 quadrillion scenario are aggressive. Crypto ownership does not translate automatically into stablecoin payment behaviour, and point-of-sale adoption faces entrenched regulatory, habitual, and network-effect barriers that Visa and Mastercard have accumulated over decades. Sustaining 133% annual compound growth at scale for a full decade has no precedent in payment technology. Investors should treat the upper-bound figure as a scenario framing rather than a central case.

Why it matters

→Mastercard's acquisition of BVNK, cited in the Chainalysis report, positions MA to capture stablecoin payment volume rather than lose it to disintermediation. If point-of-sale stablecoin integration matures without requiring a Visa or Mastercard rail, the long-term revenue risk to both networks grows. Near-term, however, both networks are actively acquiring stablecoin infrastructure, suggesting the displacement threat is being absorbed rather than avoided, which changes the competitive read on their long-term moat.
→Standard Chartered's estimate that stablecoin growth generates up to $1 trillion in incremental US Treasury demand is the most immediately testable implication in the report. The FDIC framework requires stablecoin issuers to hold reserve assets including US Treasuries, meaning regulatory finalization directly converts projected stablecoin market cap growth into a structural Treasury bid. The $2 trillion market cap target by 2028 implies a meaningful demand contribution to short-duration Treasuries independent of Fed policy.
→The FDIC's proposed framework explicitly excludes deposit insurance for stablecoin holders while the Chainalysis report projects explosive volume growth. The combination creates a structural gap: as stablecoin volumes scale toward the lower-bound $719 trillion scenario, systemic risk from uninsured payment instruments grows without a corresponding safety net, increasing the probability that regulators revisit reserve or insurance requirements before 2028, adding compliance cost drag to issuer economics.

Connected Events

Regulation · 13 days ago

FDIC proposes stablecoin issuer rules under GENIUS Act, excluding token holders from deposit insurance

The FDIC's proposed stablecoin issuer rules, which mandate reserve asset standards and exclude deposit insurance for token holders, directly shape the regulatory runway that Chainalysis's volume projections depend on. The 60-day comment period and Senate debate over yield-bearing stablecoins introduces material uncertainty into the infrastructure buildout timeline the report assumes.

M&A · 13 days ago

Standard Chartered weighs bringing Zodia Custody in-house

Standard Chartered's separate consideration of bringing Zodia Custody in-house aligns with the same bank's projection of $1 trillion in Treasury demand from stablecoin growth. STAN is simultaneously building the custody infrastructure and forecasting the macro impact, a combination that signals the bank is positioning for institutional stablecoin flows rather than treating them as a peripheral business line.

Chainalysis projects stablecoin volumes reaching $1.5 quadrillion by 2035

The Forecast

Two Catalysts

Industry Signals

Regulatory Context

Caveats

Why it matters

Connected Events

FDIC proposes stablecoin issuer rules under GENIUS Act, excluding token holders from deposit insurance

Standard Chartered weighs bringing Zodia Custody in-house

Further reading

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