Bernstein projects prediction market volumes to reach $1 trillion by 2030
Bernstein has published a forecast estimating annual prediction market volumes will reach $1 trillion by 2030, projecting an 80% compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2030. The bank sees volumes hitting $240 billion as early as 2026.
The growth thesis rests on three pillars: improving regulatory clarity, the scalability of crypto payment rails, and distribution through established retail trading platforms. Bernstein named Robinhood and Coinbase as key conduits through which prediction markets are likely to reach mainstream users.
Sports betting, currently the dominant use case, is characterised by Bernstein's analysts as the entry point rather than the destination. The bank expects institutional involvement to increase and to gradually shift volumes toward financial and political event contracts, moderating the share attributable to sports.
On equities, Bernstein sees "asymmetric upside" for Robinhood specifically, and has set a $130 price target on the stock. Coinbase is identified as another primary beneficiary given its crypto infrastructure and existing user base.
