Kalshi plans crypto perpetual futures to rival Coinbase and Robinhood
The prediction market platform aims to capture derivatives demand within a regulated US framework
Briefing
- •Kalshi is planning to launch crypto perpetual futures, moving beyond its core prediction markets business, according to The Information.
- •The move places Kalshi in direct competition with Coinbase and Robinhood in the US regulated derivatives space.
- •Coinbase and Binance have separately been expanding into prediction markets as user interest in event-outcome wagering grows.
- •The push reflects broader evolution in regulated crypto derivatives offerings available to US retail and institutional users.
Why it matters
- →Kalshi entering crypto perpetual futures puts it in direct competition with Coinbase's derivatives revenue stream at the US retail and institutional level. Coinbase has been building out its derivatives business as a margin diversifier; a CFTC-regulated perpetuals competitor with Kalshi's regulatory footprint and brand recognition in prediction markets compresses the pricing power and user acquisition advantage Coinbase has held in domestic perps. This adds to competitive pressure from eToro's recent Zengo acquisition targeting Coinbase's custodial retail base.
- →Coinbase and Binance expanding into prediction markets while Kalshi expands into perpetual futures signals convergence of the two product categories into a single regulated derivatives surface. This compresses the defensibility of any platform's core product moat and accelerates the regulatory and capital requirements for all players. Platforms without CFTC-regulated status face structural exclusion from this converging market, narrowing the competitive field to a handful of licensed entities.
Historical Context
- 2021-2022
CFTC authorized FTX US Derivatives to offer margined crypto futures directly to US retail, bypassing FCM intermediaries. The episode established that novel CFTC licensing structures could rapidly reshape incumbent crypto derivatives market share, before FTX's collapse reversed the experiment and left Coinbase as the dominant domestic regulated venue.
- 2023-2024
Kalshi won a landmark DC Circuit ruling allowing it to offer election contracts under CFTC oversight, establishing it as the only federally licensed prediction market in the US. That regulatory win is the same license structure Kalshi would use to offer crypto perps, giving it a compliance head start over new entrants.
Connected Events
eToro acquires self-custody wallet startup Zengo for $70 million
eToro's acquisition of self-custody wallet startup Zengo for $70 million positions it to compete directly with Coinbase at the retail layer, combining brokerage distribution with non-custodial infrastructure. Kalshi's perps entry opens a second competitive front on Coinbase's derivatives revenue simultaneously.
Tether backs Drift Protocol with up to $127.5m after $280m Solana exploit
Tether's backing of Drift Protocol, a Solana-based perpetuals exchange, and Drift's migration from USDC to USDT settlement reflect growing institutional validation of the perps model in crypto. Kalshi entering the same space adds a CFTC-regulated US onramp that offshore and DeFi perps venues cannot replicate.
